The Truth about the News

One of the problems we face when the media take up economic issues is that there is often a tendency to over simplify. In essence, the term 'productivity is a straightforward concept: output per worker, however, this seemingly simple idea conceals a great deal of complexity. The problem comes especially when we attempt to measure productivity and then draw comparisons over time. You should already be well aware of the problems associated with measuring national output, those are then multiplied when that is divided by the number of people in the workforce. Lets just take one example to portray the difficulties: Recent official statistics have suggested that productivity in the UK has been falling in recent years. Technically that is probably true, but we need to have cognisance of the reasons for this before reaching judgements. There has been a massive increase in labour intensive production in the UK agricultural sector.  This ceteris paribus must lead to a fall in overall pr...

The recent distortion of the truth by some elements of the British printed press leaves us wondering whether there are actually any curbs in place. When a child fostering story becomes headline news based upon fake news, there is clearly still something fundamentally wrong with the law regarding press freedoms and responsibilities. That some papers should have actually photoshopped a picture to suggest that the foster person was a muslim wearing a hijab was a disgraceful distortion of the truth. It remains to be seen what sanctions if any are brought against the offending newspapers but, the fact that they felt able to to do this in the first place speaks volumes about the perceived threat to their freedom to distort the news.

What is particularly worrying about the disclosures that the Government have repeatedly used inaccurate figures regarding the number of students staying behind in the country after the end of their courses raised several very significant issues. It appears that Theresa May, as Home Secretary was made aware that the statistics were dubious but decided that it was better to use fake figures if they best served her purposes. Such an arrogant approach to the truth is indicative of an individual and government not disposed to listen to the people but to do whatever it takes to persuade the electorate that they should accept what they are told. If the fake facts reinforce the prejudicial views of the electorate, then it seems all the more reason to feed this stream of falsehood.

There are new figures out showing that there was very little correlation between the number of migrants in an area and the voting preferences of the population. The overriding correlation to be found was between the percentage of the population that had received higher education, with those area with a higher proportion tending to vote 'remain'. It is possible to postulate all manner of things from this, it has long been my contention that passive racism was a major factor in the referendum vote. What I mean by by this is that many people expressed the view that they were voting Brexit because of migration. As 'prejudice' is defined as: holding a view based on ignorance; this justifies my view that is was prejudice against immigrants that led to the result we had. You can argue that when people have received higher education, they will tend to be less prejudiced and therefore less likely to vote for Brexit because of the issue of migration. The question of whether imm...

The growth figures announced today have been glossed over by some, yet a closer look, suggests things are not promising at all: Given the fall in the exchange rate, you would have expected to see an upturn in exports, yet manufacturing output is down 10%. Construction is also slowing and this is often a sound indicator of future trends, for if people are moving into new homes they tend to spend more on goods and services. Minford has once again been brought forward by the BBC as a reliable commentator on the economy, yet he is a discredited economist. As a major adviser to Thatcher who strongly forced upon us the nonsense of monetarism, it is hard to understand why the BBC continue to turn to him. Typically today, as a Brexiteer, he put a particular spin on the data stating that the VOLUME of exports had increased. Since when have economists been too concerned about the volume of exports? It is clearly the value of exports that is significant. Increasing the Volume of exports can lea...

There was a great deal in the news yesterday concerning the fact that producers are reducing the size of their products, or reducing the quantities whilst maintaining the same price. What was not mentioned was the consequence of this for inflation. The authorities have greatly improved their methods for updating the basket of goods they use as a measure, so that there are not so many anachronisms, but, how good will they be at taking account of these current changes. What is likely is that we shall have an under-stating of inflation figures. That of course, will have repercussions for monetary policy decision making.