Growth Figures and Minford

The growth figures announced today have been glossed over by some, yet a closer look, suggests things are not promising at all: Given the fall in the exchange rate, you would have expected to see an upturn in exports, yet manufacturing output is down 10%. Construction is also slowing and this is often a sound indicator of future trends, for if people are moving into new homes they tend to spend more on goods and services.

Minford has once again been brought forward by the BBC as a reliable commentator on the economy, yet he is a discredited economist. As a major adviser to Thatcher who strongly forced upon us the nonsense of monetarism, it is hard to understand why the BBC continue to turn to him. Typically today, as a Brexiteer, he put a particular spin on the data stating that the VOLUME of exports had increased. Since when have economists been too concerned about the volume of exports? It is clearly the value of exports that is significant. Increasing the Volume of exports can lead to an increase in employment and therefore indirectly to growth, but, it is an increase in profits that is most likely to lead to the sort of investment that will lead to long term growth. And it is an increase in the value of exports that will drive this.